Pachter Predicts Success for PS4, Failure for Morpheus

March 24, 2014 by Samantha Lienhard - Leave a comment


In the past, we’ve brought you several of analyst Michael Pachter’s predictions, not all of which we agreed with. Well, here’s what he’s had to say about Sony’s recent gaming endeavors, when asked by DualShockers.

While he doesn’t know enough about Sony to speak for the company’s success overall, he sees a bright future for the PS4. He predicts “wild success” for the console, which is certainly how thinks appear so far.

However, he believes Project Morpheus is going to be a failure. He doesn’t think Microsoft should attempt VR technology, either. He says it’s fine for a small company, like the Oculus Rift, but not for multiple, large companies. He believes the market for virtual reality games will be quite small.

It sounds interesting, but I don’t think there will be enough content to justify making the capital investment to create the headset. I think it’s chicken and egg. If there’s no content you’re not gonna buy a virtual reality headset, and if you don’t buy a virtual reality headset, there won’t be any content, because no one will make a dedicated game for a very small audience.

He makes an interesting point there. What he’s describing is similar to the cycle the Wii U has found itself in, where developers are reluctant to make games because no one is buying the Wii U, and players are reluctant to buy the Wii U because not enough developers are making games for it. On the other hand, reactions to Project Morpheus have been highly positive, and many players view VR as the way of the future.

What do you think? Is Project Morpheus just a tiny blip in the gaming market, or will it grow to something huge?

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Michael Pachter Predicts Titanfall 2 for PS4

March 4, 2014 by Staff - Leave a comment


We’ve previously brought you a few predictions from financial analyst Michael Pachter, and his latest thoughts on the gaming industry relate to Titanfall. If a Titanfall sequel is made, he doesn’t think it will be exclusive to Xbox platforms and the PC. In fact, he believes “this might be the last exclusive you see for a long time that’s third party.”

According to Pachter, EA expected the Xbox One to be vastly more successful than the PS4, which is why they made the exclusivity deal. He also said that he thinks they would never have made the deal if they knew what the price difference between the two consoles was going to be.

So far, the PS4 has definitely beat the Xbox One in terms of sales and demand, even with Titanfall being such a highly-anticipated title. Titanfall may move a lot of consoles, but we can’t help but think it would sell a lot more copies if it was available on Sony’s platforms as well, and it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that EA is thinking the same thing.

Additionally, we’d previously heard rumors that Sony was trying to make a deal to get future entries in the Titanfall series, which makes sense from Sony’s side as well. Titanfall is huge right now. So while we don’t always agree with Pachter’s assessments, this time we can see a lot of support for his prediction.

Once Titanfall launches in a week, its sales figures should provide an even clearer picture of where the IP might go in the future.

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Pachter Dismisses PlayStation Now as a “Joke”

February 5, 2014 by Staff - Leave a comment


Yesterday, we learned that industry analyst Michael Pachter feels GTA V would not be successful on next-gen consoles. Today, we learned that he doesn’t hold out high hopes for PlayStation Now, which will allow players to stream games to their Sony consoles, tablets, Bravia TVs, and more.

He didn’t exactly mince his words, either. When interviewed by Game Informer on the matter, Pachter told them:

PlayStation Now is a joke. There is no publisher that is going to license content that’s less than two years old because they would be concerned that they can’t sell as many copies if they make it available for subscription or rental. This has no prayer of working. None.

Despite his analysis, PlayStation Now has seen generally positive reactions and predictions. According to John Koller, the marketing VP of SCEA, publishers are quite interested in the service.

Pachter could be right about developers not wanting to release new games to the service, but we think he’s being rather harsh nevertheless. He’s also overlooked a very big part of PlayStation Now’s appeal—the ability to stream old games. After all, a lot of fans are interested in PlayStation Now because of its potential for backwards compatibility.

What do you think? Will PlayStation Now see success, or is it doomed to failure?

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PS4 to dominate console war through 2016

January 1, 2014 by Staff - Leave a comment


Michael Pachter, a financial analyst for the video games industry who we’ve written about many, many times in the past has some new predictions and recently revealed his thoughts on the next generation of consoles through to the year 2016.

Pachter recently sent the email you can see quoted below to various investors and other people who like to know about these matters, but the gist of it is as follows:

  • 37.7 million PS4 consoles will be sold by the middle of 2016.
  • 29 million Xbox One consoles will be sold by the same time.
  • The Wii U will do fairly poorly with sales of under 20 million by that date too.
  • The PS4 will drop to $299.99 by the year 2016.
  • The Xbox One will be $349.99 by the middle of 2016.
  • Brand new games will still cost $59.99 in 2016.

We expect Sony’s and Microsoft’s new consoles to thrive over the next three years, with cumulative worldwide sales of 37.7 million PS4 and 29 million Xbox One consoles by year-end 2016. We do not expect Nintendo’s Wii U to fare as well, with cumulative sales of under 20 million by 2016.

We expect a modest reversion to more normal software attach rates or “tie ratios,” with software sales of approximately 3 units annually over the next three years for each Xbox One and PS4 sold, and with tie ratios of just over 2 units for the Wii U and just under 1 unit for the 3DS. We think that Nintendo consoles are more susceptible to competition from mobile and tablet games, as we believe that a disproportionately high percentage of Nintendo customers play more casual games, and are therefore more likely to view mobile and tablet games as close substitutes to software developed for Nintendo’s platforms.

Software sales for the next-generation consoles are expected to grow to $12.2 billion by 2016. In contrast to the last cycle, we expect software sales for PS4 ($5.9 billion) and Xbox One ($4.9 billion) to dominate, with Wii U software capturing market share of only 11 percent. We expect overall software sales growth (including PC) in the U.S. and Europe combined (the addressable market for the publishers we cover) of 10 percent in 2014, 7 percent in 2015, and 6 percent in 2016.

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Pachter: PS4 will win, Xbox One second, Wii U “is toast”

November 13, 2013 by Staff - Leave a comment


Speaking at the London Games Conference, well-known video games weatherman analyst Michael Pachter has said he expects the Playstation 4 to win this generation’s console war and that the Wii U “is toast”.

Pachter thinks Sony will sell between 100 and 120 million PS4 units during its lifecycle and that Microsoft will sell between 90 and 110 million Xbox One units – numbers that are still very close to each other. Meanwhile Pachter believes the Wii U will turnover just 30 million units.

Key wins for the PS4 appear to be its price point ($100 cheaper than Xbox One) and that Sony is not forcing you to purchase the PS Eye camera (Pachter said that “gamers do not want Kinect”). That said, he thinks that the Xbox One’s TV features could prove popular provided there is sufficient adoption by/integration with third party TV services.

It’s not all bad news for Xbox One fans either, Pachter said that if Microsoft changed its pricing policy and made the Xbox One more affordable, then it and the PS4 could be “neck and neck”. Considering how far Microsoft has come since it first revealed the Xbox One, we tend to agree.


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