Most financial analysts (and indeed many gamers) are betting that the Playstation 4 will outsell the Xbox One at launch. However Baird Research analyst Colin Sebastian has bucked the trend and instead suggested that the Xbox One could instead outsell the PS4 during the launch window.
While many forecasts still give an edge to Sony/PS4 in North America sales, we continue to expect similar or even slightly higher sales of Xbox One by the end of the launch window.
Sebastian’s reasons for backing the Xbox One at launch are not immediately clear, although appear to be at least in-part related to eBay listings. Sebastian says that while both next-generation consoles are available on eBay with mark-ups well in excess of their respective RRPs, the Xbox One averages a 60% premium over its $500 RRP while the Playstation 4 only manages a 50% premium.
Given that manufacturing supplies of the Xbox One are forecast to be tighter at launch than the Playstation 4, we think you could put the mark-up difference down to that – Xbox One gamers are simply willing to pay more for a system they have lesser chance of getting on launch (as opposed to PS4 gamers who should have a better chance of scoring a PS4).
Either way it’s refreshing to see an analyst giving the Xbox One the advantage.